Gold lost over 4% on January 8. The precious metal has swung wildly since the start of 2021; first exploding to a high of $1,959 before it dropped to a low of $1,828 per ounce. Nevertheless, the bullish story may not be over yet, in the opinion of the Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, Bart Melek.
“Given that vaccine programs in the US and through many parts of the world are very much behind schedule and the pandemic is raging, economic conditions will remain weak for a while longer. This suggests that yields may not move as high as some gold traders seem to be betting, which may be good news for gold prices.”
Interestingly, the drivers that hit gold the hardest including a steeper yield curve, technical selling, higher yields (nominal and real), and firmer USD may not continue to trend in an upside direction for much longer. It suggests that gold, after reaching support near the $1,820s may be ready for a bounce higher.
Experts advise that the traders need to keep an eye out for the prevailing economic activity, vaccine program progress, and Joe Biden’s ability to sell a highly aggressive stimulus agenda as the drivers of the gold market. It is highly likely that gold still has a material upward, with $2,000 on the horizon in the next 12 months.