In the past week, Ether has clearly shown that it is permanently connected to Bitcoin’s price. However, some of the other altcoins seem to be forging their unique paths going higher. Scrutiny of ETH/USD and ETH/BTC chart reveals movements of a bullish breakout. Nonetheless, there are still major challenges ahead before this can occur.
Ether’s daily chart is constantly putting a gap between itself and the multi-month descending triangle. The token broke that triangle on October 25. It is continuously going higher registering higher lows with each passing day. The recent surge to $194.60 almost set a higher high above the October 25 local high at $199.77.
The previous analysis stated that Ether needed to clear the $184 to $186 resistance zone to take a shot at $194. That point reached early on November 6.
Key Resistance Broken
The next step, if volume allows, will be for the bulls to push the ETH price to the 200-day moving average (DMA). That level also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The 12-period exponential moving average (EMA) currently remains above the 26 EMA even though the price has dropped back from $194.
Currently, indicators suggest that the price may revisit the moving average of the Bollinger Band indicator around $187. The RSI has dropped from 68 and the Stochastic RSI (Stoch) has also turned down. It is seemingly approaching bearish territory. An imminent bear cross is forming on the moving average confluence divergence (MACD).
In a normal scenario, that would mean that the ETH price may drop towards the $183.74 support. That point is held up by a large volume node on the volume profile visible range. Luckily, the hourly time frame has a different story.
The Relative Strength Index bounced a bit above 40. That is a reliable level of scrutinizing these movements on the hourly and 6-hour timeframe. The Stoch receded from 0 and is currently going back up gradually after the lines converged.
The speed of the falling MACD line has also slowed as the ETH price bounced from the lower arm of the Bollinger Band. Now, the price is pushing back to the middle band at $190.65. If Ether price sustains above $199.45 traders may consider buying the breakout. Eventually, the price would rise to $225 and then $240.
ETH vs. BTC
The ETH/BTC pairing is improving with a pattern of daily higher lows as the price oscillates between 12 and 26 EMA. The peak is located at 0.020592 satoshis (sats). If the price moves higher than that, ETH may work on taking out 0.020984 (sats). The divergence on the daily MACD and the bull cross between the MACD and the signal line are what traders should watch keenly.
The MACD histogram has turned green and is currently sustained above 0. At the moment, the price is getting rejected at the 20-MA of the Bollinger Band indicator. Any move above the first target around 0.020984 (sats) could see the ETH price run to the upper Bollinger Band arm at 0.022033 (sats) for an approximate 7.25% gain.
That might be a formidable problem as the VPVR shows considerable selling pressure at 0.020984 (sats) and above. The 6-hour chart also proves that ETH is limited below resistance at 0.020592 (sats). The price, for now, is trading in a volume gap after forming support at 0.020375 (sats). Major resistance is pinned at 0.020814 (sats).
ETH/BTC weekly chart shows Ether is constantly held back by the 20-WMA. The price must push above this point for anything tangible to happen. The weekly MACD seems to be in good order with the indicator lifting from the signal line and the histogram indicates an increase in interest from buyers.
Weekly RSI is rising towards 40 and the alternate view of the ETH/BTC pair on the weekly chart can provoke inspiration and curiosity in equal measures. ETH could be getting ready to break above the year-long descending triangle which is a position familiar to many altcoins currently. If it rises above the 20-WMA, it can register several higher highs in the coming days.
On October 25, the ETH/BTC pairing plunged rapidly against BTC’s 42% gain. Thus, traders must review the USD and BTC pairing keenly before opening any large positions.
Levels to Watch
Anyone looking to set up long positions needs to look at the 6-hour chart to determine the probability of ETH price dropping to the middle Bollinger Band at 0.020027(sats). That point also coincides with the ascending trendline of the rising wedge pattern. Any drop below the trendline may cause the Ether price to retest the nearby 0.019666(sats) support zone. That is the area where the VPVR shows as strong support.
Another support has formed around 0.019637(sats) which lines up with the lower Bollinger Band arm. Any form of bounce off the lower ascending trendline of the rising wedge seems possible. That brings Ether price near the termination point of the pattern. The nature of these patterns may result in disputes.
Most traders think that the ascending triangles are bullish and can lead to upside continuation. On the other hand, the rising wedges are bearish and in the instance that the entry starts from a downside break, it increases the probability that the market will remain bearish when the wedge is completed.