Just like most of the other markets, Bitcoin is all about momentum, patterns, and trends. According to one prominent American crypto investor, Cane Island Crypto, there is a high potential that the market may see a bloodbath in the next three months.
In a recent tweet, the analyst accentuated that historically, July and August have been ‘bad months’ for Bitcoin. Evidently, these two summer months are the only months with a negative total return. On the other hand, months like March, April, and October all have positive returns in the hundreds of percent.
What is equally as harrowing is that the menace also strikes in June with Bitcoin performing poorly during this month. There is an almost 75% likelihood that the entire crypto market will continue to languish into July. The main question now is: are the technical indicators backing a move lower?
#Bitcoin through the years.
1) July and August are historically bad months for $BTC
2) However, June's momentum carries into July 75% of the time.
3) If June is negative, the following July has ALWAYS been negative. pic.twitter.com/1uAEbw2XI5
— Cane Island Crypto (@nsquaredcrypto) June 7, 2019
Bitcoin Could Plummet Further
Many investors are now fearful that Bitcoin could head downwards from here, in spite of the relent in the bearish selling pressure. A famous trader, Walter Wyckoff noted that if Bitcoin is mirroring the price action of 2015 when the market went parabolic, the brief retrace will disappear in the near term.
If the 2015 data and charts are to go by, it is expected that Bitcoin could descend to the low $6,000s or even the high $5,000s. Another analyst, Moon Overlord, has agreed with that pseudo-prediction. In that thread, the popular analyst remarked that about a 35% correction to about $6,000 from the recent $9,100 peak may be healthy for the market.
If you think #bitcoin is in a bull market and are looking to buy the dip, look to the previous run for templates.
The largest dip was barely -40%, most are in the -30%'s.
A -30/-40 % dip from here coincidentally lines up with the strongest support in the high 5000's low 6000's pic.twitter.com/zsEr4HnuKz
— Moon Overlord (@MoonOverlord) June 5, 2019
Bitcoin keeps bouncing off support at these levels. Any successful bounce will build a long-term base for the crypto’s expected ‘power surge to the moon.’ The legendary crypto investor Trace Mayer explained on Twitter that he expects bitcoin to experience a ‘gentle retreat’. That retreat could see the price fall to between $6,500 and $7,500.
Tuur Demeester, an Adamant Capital Partner, says that his firm’s indicators now read ‘greed’ after ‘capitulation’. Demeester remarked that according to that information, a 2012-esque correction could be experienced. If such a correction comes into being, BTC may plunge to the range of $6,800 and $7,680 representing a 27% to 44% retrace to the upside rally.
Bitcoin has not lost the Bullish Trend
Many analysts and commentators are keen to note that until hell arrives at the crypto market, Bitcoin maintains a long-term bull trend. Josh Rager of Level Company believes that the one-week Super Guppy has flipped from red to grey for Bitcoin. Super Guppy is an indicator that singles out trends. After the three-day iteration of the Bitcoin signal, it turned green.
$BTC – 1 Week Super Guppy
After looking at the 3 Day Guppy chart, we confirmed a bull trend as it flipped green
Now we see the 1 week flip from red to grey signaling end of bear market after the price pushed 7k
Guppy is a lagging indicator but makes for strong confirmation IMO pic.twitter.com/VKFUk74CbM
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) June 3, 2019
With Guppy termed as a lagging indicator, Rager believes that this recent technical occurrence is a ‘strong confirmation’ of a long-term bull trend. Furthermore, Bitcoin recently closed its fourth consecutive weekly candle above its 50-week moving average. That series of events historically have never failed to indicate the start of a bull run in the past. Where the price of Bitcoin will head, nobody knows for now but only time will tell.