Currently, gold is moving sideways in the 21 ema zone. However, price action recently bounced significantly at the Fibonacci support levels. The XAU/USD is now testing the 21 ema zone resistance. A bullish breakout above the Fractal and resistance trend line confirms the uptrend continuation.
A bullish break increases the chances of wave 4 completed and the start of wave 5. Gold price will be building a wave 1-2-3 within that wave 5. On the other hand, a bearish break below the 21 ema zone may confirm a bigger bearish pullback. In this case, the price will first aim at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
A break below the 61.8% Fib changes the short-term outlook but not the long-term bullishness. In that connection, it is possible to see a wave 4, but it will come with a higher degree and a bigger price swing. The primary target and support zone is the 38.2% Fib of the bigger swing. Thus, the uptrend is just unlikely of the price falls deep.
Based on the 4-hour chart, the price action might be developing a wave 1-2, which might become invalid if the price action breaks below the bottom. A bullish breakout and shallow flag would mean that an abrupt bullish breakout is imminent.