Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster since its inception in 2009. Although some analysts and critics term the crypto as a bubble, it is proving to be a viable speculative investment. A history of bitcoin plunges reveals that after every bear market, it roars back surging higher than ever before. Brian Kelly, founder of Brian Kelly Capital, believes that another bull run will happen soon.
In December 2017, it reached an all-time high before plummeting by over 80% in the course of 2018. Brian believes that everything that seems wrong with bitcoin is going to get fixed. In a recent interview with CNBC, he said that the first break-even for the miners was pegged at around $5,900. That explains the sharp sell-off after the price fell below that point.
Bitcoin is Just like the Internet
Brian believes that Bitcoin is taking the exact route taken by the internet. The internet started off super-slow and it seemed quite unreliable which made people avoid it. However, as technology and developments were made, it got better and it got a higher adoption rate. Bitcoin is also at its development stages.
The correlations between the regulators, exchanges, developers, and investors will, in the long run, enable Bitcoin to shift from just being a speculative token to become a dependable store of value.
Currently, around 8% of Americans have invested in the crypto. 10% is the psychological threshold rate where adoption is achieved. Analysts believe that it is just a matter of time before the threshold is reached.
How to Trade Bitcoin
Brian Kelly invested in Bitcoin for the first time in 2013 when its price was around $250. However, he has not been a HODLER through the rise and fall of bitcoin over the years. He advocates that only 1-5% of any portfolio should comprise of the cryptos since they are the riskiest markets currently.
His firm runs a long/short crypto hedge fund with systematic models that are both short and long on long-term and short-term. Although he is a noticeable ambassador of Bitcoin, Brian confirmed that he sometimes shorts the crypto based on the prevailing markets. He remains neutral currently although the 2018 portfolio is a net short in the case of bitcoin and other cryptos.
According to the mania in the markets currently, there are several preconditions for a bottom currently. Brian suggested that the $2,900 zone may be reached before it bottoms and starts rising again. The over 80% fall in 2018 seems like an entry opportunity for the institutional investors.
As the markets boomed between 20186 and 2017, institutions seemed to resign to the fact that they had missed out on a great investment opportunity.
However, as the market plunges, the renewed hopes of profiting from the crypto markets have resurrected. Based on the previous plummets and rising in the prices, new investors have a growing confidence that the tides will turn soon and the crypto market will rise again.
With the current remaining miners in the bitcoin market, around $3,000 is the break-even point for them subject to the electricity costs in their country of operation. Thus, Brian Kelly believes that the $2,900-$3,000 support zone will hold in this current bear market and the bulls will once more trounce the bears.